QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do?
ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate.
Predicting is when you start making guesses about things. For example, you predict that laying sheet-rock will take 45 hours to do and you guess that it will be done in 2 weeks.
Forecasting, on the other hand, is when you take information from past jobs and apply it to a new job. For example, if you have seen that laying the sheet-rock for a 3,000 sq ft space takes 65 hours and it usually done in 4 weeks then the next time you have to quote out the same job you’ll be able to forecast how much its going to cost and how long it will really take i.e. when it will really be done after work starts on it.
The big difference is predicting is based on your best guess from experience. Forecasting is based on data you’ve actually recorded and tracked from previous jobs.
As it relates to Vertabase
project management software, predicting is when you first enter in your best guess of estimated hours on a task and your estimated start and end dates for that task. Forecasting is when those estimated hours are based on actual hours tracked on those type of tasks and actual duration (the amount of time between the start date and actual end date) of that type of task. All that data is tracked automatically in the project management software and easy to report on - making forecasting a snap (and far more accurate than predicting).
There are a lot of new project managers out there - being created every day by someone else in the organization losing their job. You may not know that you are a project manager but if you are now charged with getting things done, you are a project manager.
You will have the same amount of responsibility as the last person but with likely fewer resources and a ton more stress.
It can be tremendously overwhelming.
Job Definition List
My first, and best word of advice, is to make a list of everything you are now responsible for, a Job Definition List.
This will allow you to visualize what is on your plate and breathe easier. Going through this exercise will help give shape to the amorphous feeling of doom you may be feeling.
The JDL should be bullet points with a maximum of two sentences clarifying a point, when needed. If it takes more than two sentences to explain, than the bullet point itself isn’t defined clearly enough to be actionable.
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One helpful piece of information to get on a project is estimated hours per task. This is a measure of how much work or effort a particular task will take. Not to be confused with due date (when a task will be done), estimated hours is a reflection of how much of a person’s time the task will take. Knowing this will help you better allocate that person’s time. It will make it easier to juggle tasks across projects and plan out people’s workload.
Getting estimated hours from internal staff can sometimes be hard. First off, people may worry that if they tell you it will take 8 hours, you’ll be mad when its not done by the end of the day. They might also be afraid that if it takes them longer then the estimate, they’ll be penalized. These fears can keep people from giving estimates.
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The first, and often hardest, step to starting with project management is creating a task list. Many people try to think of everything that goes into a project or job, write that down, then want to capture the changes between one job and the other by tracking which were the specific tasks that were different.
The idea behind this is that people want to better visualize their process so they can track how different reality is from the plan, where delay’s happen and where they can improve things. The problem with this approach is that no two jobs are ever the same. No two, super-detailed lists are ever going to be the same. You’ll spend more time changing the plan then recording data.
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Many IT departments I’ve spoken with lately are challenged by having too much on their plate. They need to support current applications, make modifications, keep the servers running, etc.. All the while, they are being asked to develop new apps that can advance corporate goals. For an IT deptartment that has been barely keeping on top of everything (and likely can’t hire anyone right now), this can be a real problem. How to make room for more than just keeping the lights on?
The first step to solving it, is to get a clearer look at it.
On the one side, there are different people making requests: management, department heads, existing users. This is IT’s client.
On the other side, there is the IT department: the implementors.
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In Why Decisions Fail (Berrett-Koehler, 2002), Paul C. Nutt makes the astonishing statement that “failure is four times more likely when decision makers embrace the first idea they come across…” What can cause the manager to make these kinds of choices? What are some ways to prevent these mistakes?
One major contributing factor is familiarity. Most decision makers have substantial experience in both the industry and company culture in which they work. This experience, while very helpful in most regards, tends to create a paradigm within which potential solutions are often limited. The reasons for making familiar choices are often obscure, if not forgotten.
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Washington gave us an interesting example today of a flexible management style with the President’s decision to be flexible on the proposed $900 billion legislative package making its way in the legislature. I’m not commenting on the pros and cons of the bill or of the President’s action. I just find it interesting that he is opting to change the initial package, his original “project plan” as it were, in order to achieve a different goal. For him, it seems that the true goal of the package (the purpose of the project) is to get something done fast and that has joint input for both parties. Again, whether that’s right or wrong is not the point of this post.
The point is that this is an example of a management style that is focused on a business goal, as it were, of the project rather than the specific deliverables originally defined in the project plan. In this case, the business goal seems to be: the process. The President wants Congress (the team) to work together in a specific way -and with speed. There is flexibility on the deliverables themselves. The focus is on process, on how the team works together. Depending on how its done, it can be either very frustrating for the team or empowering. Frustrating, since the role of every team member is generally to facilitate accomplishing a specific deliverable. Empowering, if team members find that the new process allows them to accomplish deliverables faster or more efficiently. Let’s see what happens.
I heard a commentator today talking about the new deadline for the move to digital TV. As a broadcast insider he thought the February 17 date was etched in stone. Companies had been planning for it for years. There were investments in new equipment, reducing the maintenance on older, analog equipment, time spent education local audiences, etc. All in all, the broadcasters are ready. And, according to this commentator, since the broadcasters were ready, they assumed there audience would be ready and that everything would go as planned.
Well, it didn’t quite work that way. Most of the audience is ready. But some, still aren’t. So Washington moved the deadline. And what had apparently been set in stone, the baseline assumption upon which huge amounts of money had spent, changed. No amount of planning, risk management or forecasting that I’ve seen could have predicted this. Managers at broadcasting companies are left with two options, be frustrated by the new reality or be flexible. Either way, it won’t change the new deadline. But my guess is that managers that opt for flexibility are going to find better ways of capitalizing on the new reality -and turn it into an opportunity.
What an amazing game. Super Bowl 43. Players playing their hardest. Doing incredible things. A field full of passion.
And great entertainment. Tons of fun to watch.
A friend once commented that there are only two things we do our whole life: What we must do, and what we choose to do. The truth of this becomes even more significant when one takes an honest look at just how little of our daily activities fall into the first category. Our choices about what we do and how we do it determine nearly everything in our lives.
Time management and project management are similar in many ways, not the least of which is directly related to choices. In project management, the manager makes choices about the use of their own time, and also the use of time by the other members of the team.
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